New Delhi: India’s services exports are expected to reach $618.21 billion by FY30, edging past merchandise exports, which are projected at $613.04 billion, think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said Wednesday.
It said the country needs to diversify its IT exports beyond the US, regulate the dominance of American tech giants and strategically tap into high-growth areas like transport, travel, maintenance and repair, to continue this momentum.
The growth estimates are based on compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between FY19 and FY24 of 5.8% for merchandise exports and 10.5% for
services exports.
“Regulating the dominance of US tech giants like Google, Facebook, Amazon, and OpenAI is essential to foster the growth of homegrown digital enterprises. Establishing regulations to promote a level playing field can empower Indian companies to compete globally,” GTRI said.
Software and IT services, and other business services (OBS) accounted for 86.4% of total services exports in FY24.
OBS, which includes legal, tax, consulting and market research services, generated $102.8 billion in FY24, or 33.2% of the total services exports.
“With a global market more than twice the size of IT, OBS is poised to outpace IT services in growth, driven by rising demand for specialised expertise and integration with manufacturing processes,”
GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava said.
Innovations in artificial intelligence, the internet of things and digital transformation continue to drive demand for India’s IT expertise globally, with about 80% of these services delivered digitally.
To sustain the momentum of services export growth, India must expand OBS beyond its reliance on GCC markets as diversifying and capturing these untapped opportunities will solidify India’s position as a global leader in services exports, according to the report.
GTRI also insisted on improved data transparency. While the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) provides aggregate data, granular bilateral and mode-specific information remains unavailable. The Goods and Services Tax Network (GSTN) holds valuable data that could unlock insights, but it is not accessible to the public.
“Transparent and detailed data collection is essential for rigorous analysis and effective policy formulation,” Srivastava said, adding that with the right policies and investments, India’s services sector can achieve sustained growth, contributing significantly to the country’s economic aspirations and cementing its position on the global stage.
